Drivers of seedling establishment success in dryland restoration efforts

Restoration of degraded drylands is urgently needed to mitigate climate change, reverse desertification and secure livelihoods for the two billion people who live in these areas. Bold global targets have been set dryland restoration restore millions hectares land. These questioned as overly ambitious, but without a evaluation successes failures it impossible gauge feasibility. Here we examine seeding outcomes across 174 sites on six continents, encompassing 594,065 observations 671 plant species. Our findings suggest reasons optimism. Seeding had positive impact species presence: almost third all treatments, 100% seeded were growing at first monitoring. However, risky: 17% projects failed, with no establishment any species, consistent declines found matured. Across projects, higher rates larger seed sizes resulted greater probability recruitment, further influences success including site aridity, taxonomic identity life form. that investigations examining predictive factors will yield more effective informed decision-making. The native critical efforts. authors evaluate finding some nearly successfully recruit, while zero seedling success.